Every few years, the question resurfaces with new urgency: is now a good time to buy?
In 2026, the answer from commentators, estate agents, and lenders is broadly: yes. Rates are lower. Banks are saying yes more often. Buyer activity is at its highest in years. The mood has shifted.
But "good time to buy" is not a market condition. It is a personal one.
The market might be favourable and still be the wrong time for you specifically. Or the market could be difficult and your circumstances could make it exactly right. The headline numbers tell you what is happening out there. They do not tell you what is right for you in here.
This is a guide to the actual question: given where things stand in 2026, should you buy?
What has genuinely changed since 2023
The starting point matters. In 2023, the South African Reserve Bank held the prime lending rate at 11.75%, the highest level in over a decade, as part of a global effort to contain inflation after the Covid-era stimulus.
That rate made property expensive to finance. Monthly repayments were at multi-year highs, bond approval rates fell, and buyers who had stretched during the pandemic era began feeling the pressure.
That cycle has now turned.
The SARB cut the repo rate six consecutive times between September 2024 and November 2025, reducing the prime lending rate from 11.75% to 10.25%, a total reduction of 150 basis points. The February 2026 MPC meeting left rates unchanged. Forecasters at Investec and the SARB's own projection model suggest further cuts are possible by late 2026, potentially bringing prime to 9.75%.
For borrowers, this is meaningful. On a R1.5 million bond over 20 years, the 150 basis point reduction translates to approximately R1,230 less per month compared to repayments at the August 2024 peak, according to ooba Home Loans data.
That is not a trivial change. It is the difference, for many buyers, between qualifying for a bond and not.
What the lending data shows
Banks are responding to the improved affordability environment. ooba's oobarometer for Q3 2025 recorded a bond approval rate of 83.9%, up from approximately 77% the previous year. For buyers who arrived pre-qualified, the approval rate hit 91%.
First-time buyers now represent 46.8% of all bond applications, the highest share in years. Their average purchase price has reached R1,229,267, growing at 4.1% year on year. Average deposits required have fallen to 8.9% of the purchase price, the lowest since 2019, a sign that banks are competing for quality applicants.
The picture is clear: this is not a reluctant lending environment. Banks are actively looking to approve.
What is actually happening to property prices
House price growth has been picking up. FNB's Property Barometer recorded 4.5% year-on-year growth in August 2025, the fastest in over three years. Lightstone's data shows a similar trajectory at 4.7% nationally.
Both figures are nominally above the current inflation rate of approximately 3.5%, meaning real (inflation-adjusted) appreciation has returned to positive territory for the first time since the post-pandemic correction.
But the national average conceals sharp regional divergence.
The Western Cape has been running hot. Since 2010, Cape Town properties have appreciated 179.6% in nominal terms versus Gauteng's 79.7% over the same period. Whether that outperformance continues or moderates is a genuine question for buyers considering the premium coastal market in 2026.
The honest case for buying now
There are four genuinely compelling reasons to consider buying in 2026, if your circumstances support it.
Rates are lower, but not yet at the floor. Buying into a cutting cycle has historically been the right move in South African property. If rates fall further (and forecasters suggest they may), buyers who entered at 10.25% prime will see their repayments ease without having done anything. Buyers who wait risk prices outpacing the rate savings if market momentum accelerates.
It is a buyer's market in most of the country. Average time on market nationally sits at approximately 12 weeks, meaning sellers are waiting longer to find buyers. That creates negotiating room. Sellers who have been on market for 90 days are in a structurally weaker position than they were at listing. Informed buyers can use this.
Transfer duty relief has improved. The transfer duty exemption threshold was raised to R1,210,000 effective 1 April 2025, up from R1,100,000. Properties at or below this price attract zero transfer duty. This now covers the average first-time buyer purchase price of R1,229,267, right at the threshold.
Entry-level properties are outperforming. Lightstone data shows properties below R250,000 growing at approximately 8% annually, and the R700,000–R1.5 million band showing the highest transaction activity. This is where bank appetite, buyer demand, and price momentum align best.
The honest case for caution
A fair analysis also requires looking at what is working against buyers.
Municipal costs are a growing and under-discussed burden. South Africa's rates and municipal bills are not static. In Cape Town, the 2025/26 budget included average property rate increases of 7.96%, but the real-world impact has been far higher for many ratepayers due to general revaluations. Some homeowners in Cape Town have seen municipal bills increase by 25% to 140% in a single year. The city has also changed its policy to link fixed service charges to property value, compounding the effect for mid- and upper-market properties.
This is a real cost of ownership that does not appear in bond repayment calculations.
The economy is not running hot. The IMF forecasts 1.4% GDP growth for South Africa in 2026, below global averages and well below what is needed to absorb unemployment of 31.9%. Slow economic growth limits the wage growth that typically underpins property demand. It also means the structural vulnerabilities that have constrained South Africa's property market for years have not gone away.
Load shedding has improved dramatically, but fragility remains. South Africa recorded 231 consecutive days without load shedding in 2025, with only 26 hours of outages all year. Eskom's Energy Availability Factor reached 67.55% in December 2025, a marked improvement. This shift is significant and was unimaginable 18 months ago. But Eskom's generating infrastructure remains structurally stressed, and full energy security depends on factors that are not yet resolved.
Overleveraging remains a real risk. The R800,000–R2.5 million segment shows the highest financial distress rates among property owners. Buyers in this bracket typically earn too much for government support and too little to comfortably absorb unexpected costs. Buying at the top of what you qualify for, rather than the top of what you can comfortably afford, is where things go wrong.
The rent vs buy calculation
Renting is not simply throwing money away. It is paying for flexibility, lower transaction costs, and the ability to move without a 12-week selling process.
But the financial case for renting has weakened in 2026. The national average rent reached R9,286 per month in Q3 2025, growing at 5.6% year on year, the fastest rental growth since 2017. Rents are not stable; they are rising, and at a rate that compounds quickly.
If you are renting a property at R9,500 per month today and rent grows at 5.6% annually, you will be paying approximately R12,500 per month in five years. That trajectory matters when deciding whether to keep renting or lock in a bond repayment today.
The standard guidance on the buy-versus-rent question in South Africa is to think in terms of a five-year hold minimum. Property transaction costs are substantial upfront: transfer duty (where applicable), attorney fees, and bond registration. The capital appreciation and equity build-up from a bond need time to outweigh these entry costs.
If you are confident you can hold for five or more years, buying at current rates builds equity faster than it would have in 2023. If your timeline is shorter, the maths becomes less favourable.
How to actually decide
Rather than asking "is it a good time to buy?", these are the questions that will give you a real answer.
Can you afford the repayment at current rates, not anticipated future rates? Rate cuts are not guaranteed. Buy at today's prime, not tomorrow's forecast prime.
Is your income stable for the foreseeable future? A bond is a long-term, high-fixed-cost commitment. Buying on a salary that could materially change within 24 months introduces real risk.
Do you have a 10–15% deposit? This is not just about lender requirements. It is about not being immediately underwater if prices soften. A deposit also typically secures a better interest rate concession from the bank.
Are you buying in a market with reasonable liquidity? A property in the R700,000–R1.5 million range in a major metro will be much easier to sell if your circumstances change than a niche or rural property.
Are you planning to hold for at least five years? This is the minimum horizon that makes the transaction costs of buying and selling worthwhile. Below that, the maths works against you regardless of market conditions.
Have you accounted for all costs, not just the bond? Monthly rates and taxes, levies, building insurance, maintenance provisions, and rising municipal bills all add to the true cost of ownership. These are not discretionary.
- Stable income that can sustain repayments at prime 10.25%, not a lower anticipated rate
- Deposit of 10–15% of purchase price, ideally closer to 15%
- Five-year minimum hold horizon: below that, transaction costs erode returns
- Clear view of monthly holding costs beyond the bond: rates, levies, insurance, maintenance
- Buying in the R700K–R1.5M range in a major metro gives you the best liquidity if your plan changes
- Transfer duty exemption applies up to R1,210,000, a meaningful saving for entry-level buyers
Before you speak to a bank
The most useful thing you can do before approaching a lender is to understand your full buying cost beyond the bond repayment.
Transfer duty, bond registration fees, attorney conveyancing fees, and the deposit together make up your upfront cash requirement, which is typically R80,000 to R200,000 above the deposit on a R1.2 million purchase. Most buyers underestimate this number significantly.
Once you know your actual upfront cost and your realistic monthly commitment, the conversation with a bank becomes a confirmation of what you already know. Not a discovery exercise where someone else defines the limits of your decision.
Zettl's buyer tools calculate your full upfront costs: transfer duty, bond registration, attorney fees, and deposit, in around three minutes. Know your real numbers before anyone else is involved in the conversation.
Also worth reading: Understanding Transfer Duty and Sell, Rent Out or Refinance?, relevant if you are buying while selling.
Sources: ooba oobarometer Q3 2025. FNB Property Barometer August–October 2025. Lightstone Property Index 2025. PayProp Rental Index Q3 2025. South African Reserve Bank MPC statements 2024–2026. SARS Transfer Duty tables effective 1 April 2025. IMF World Economic Outlook January 2026. Global Property Guide South Africa 2025–2026.